Emiliano Martínez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emiliano Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 6.1M-20.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.2M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-6.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 99th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2835 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1583
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €6.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -71% to -60%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 32 | 2835 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1583 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3195 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1562 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 34 | 3015 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1565 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3140 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1554 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1567 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1570 | 1517 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 9 | 770 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1563 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Getafe CF | Laliga | GK | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1577 | 1503 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1459 | 1681 | 1.07 |
| 2014/15 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | GK | 4 | 301 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1521 | 1729 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1238 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1842 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1423 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Lloris Premier League · 2019 | 33 | €25.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| David de Gea Premier League · 2023 | 33 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Tomáš Vaclík Laliga · 2020 | 31 | €14.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nick Pope Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Petr Cech Premier League · 2014 | 32 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Víctor Valdés Laliga · 2014 | 32 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Sergio Asenjo Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €9.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Roman Weidenfeller Bundesliga · 2013 | 33 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sept 2020 | Arsenal | Aston Villa | €17.4M | €8.0M |
| 31 May 2019 | Reading | Arsenal | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 23 Jan 2019 | Arsenal | Reading | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Getafe | Arsenal | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Aug 2017 | Arsenal | Getafe | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2016 | Wolves | Arsenal | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 11 Aug 2015 | Arsenal | Wolves | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 4 May 2015 | Rotherham | Arsenal | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 20 Mar 2015 | Arsenal | Rotherham | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2014 | Sheff Wed | Arsenal | Free / loan | €300k |
| 15 Oct 2013 | Arsenal | Sheff Wed | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Arsenal U21 | Arsenal | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 May 2012 | Oxford United | Arsenal Res. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 May 2012 | Arsenal Res. | Oxford United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Indep'te U20 | Arsenal Res. | €1.5M | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.