Marc Roca
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Roca's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-18.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (2025 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2025 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; relative output down 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -68% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | DM | 29 | 2025 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1490 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | DM | 14 | 909 | 27% | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 1492 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | DM | 26 | 1987 | 58% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1510 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | DM | 32 | 2330 | 68% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1567 | 1418 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | DM | 9 | 378 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1479 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | DM | 6 | 175 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1563 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 35 | 3020 | 88% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1538 | 1432 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 35 | 3116 | 91% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1548 | 1559 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 8 | 258 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1558 | 1523 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 25 | 1317 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 1533 | 1520 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 8 | 510 | 0 | 2 | 1495 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 182 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1294 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 95 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 3 | 254 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 4 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1635 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 5 | 347 | 0 | 2 | 1375 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 1455 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 5 | 383 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Aguilar Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Óliver Torres Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Dennis Aogo Bundesliga · 2015 | 28 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ibrahim Afellay Premier League · 2016 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Karol Linetty Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Carlos Sánchez Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Yuriy Zhirkov Premier Liga · 2015 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Erik Durm Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €2.5M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Leeds | Real Betis | €4.5M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Real Betis | Leeds | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 17 Jul 2023 | Leeds | Real Betis | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bayern Munich | Leeds | €12.0M | €7.0M |
| 4 Oct 2020 | Espanyol | Bayern Munich | €9.0M | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Espanyol U18 | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.