Umar Sadiq
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Umar Sadiq's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-6.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1055 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1055 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.68
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1491
- Opponent strength
- 1462
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -77% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1055 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 20 | 903 | 26% | 4 | 3 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 1462 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 5 | 152 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 1487 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | ST | 16 | 825 | 24% | 5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 1522 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 7 | 224 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1553 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 26 | 1074 | 31% | 3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 1433 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | UD Almería | Laliga | ST | 3 | 242 | 7% | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | 1.07 | 1612 | 1371 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 2 | 83 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.60 | 1561 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2018/19 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1163 | 1481 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | ST | 12 | 621 | 20% | 5 | 3 | 1.16 | 0.95 | 1338 | 1253 | 0.59 |
| 2017/18 | Torino FC | Serie A | ST | 3 | 225 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1515 | 1481 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 7 | 231 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 1528 | 1360 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | ST | 6 | 188 | 5% | 2 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.50 | 1458 | 1665 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 123 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 123 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 191 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 3 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 1536 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 190 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 4 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1767 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rangers FC | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1460 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Pinilla Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €3.4M | €2.2M | fell |
| Davie Selke Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Alessio Cerci Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €8.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Robert Beric Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Yura Movsisyan Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
| Victor Anichebe Premier League · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jony Laliga · 2021 | 30 | €2.8M | €500k | fell |
| José Manuel Arnáiz Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | Real Sociedad | Valencia | €5.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Valencia | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 4 Jan 2025 | Real Sociedad | Valencia | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | UD Almería | Real Sociedad | €20.0M | €18.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Partizan | UD Almería | €9.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jan 2020 | Roma | Partizan | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 29 Jan 2020 | Partizan | Roma | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Roma | Partizan | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Perugia | Roma | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 9 Jan 2019 | Roma | Perugia | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 16 Dec 2018 | Rangers | Roma | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Roma | Rangers | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | NAC Breda | Roma | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 27 Jan 2018 | Roma | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 26 Jan 2018 | Torino | Roma | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 16 Aug 2017 | Roma | Torino | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Bologna | Roma | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Roma | Bologna | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Spezia Calcio | Roma | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Roma | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 13 Jul 2015 | Spezia U19 | Roma | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Spezia Youth | Spezia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Abuja College | Spezia Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.