Davie Selke
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Davie Selke's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.27x the positional average in the league (1204 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €914k vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1204 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.90
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.65
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €639k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -60% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1204 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | ST | 24 | 1204 | 39% | 10 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.65 | 1267 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 19 | 1273 | 42% | 6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 1508 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 17 | 875 | 29% | 5 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 1541 | 1476 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | ST | 13 | 276 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.82 | 1598 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | ST | 25 | 996 | 33% | 4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 1514 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 23 | 802 | 26% | 3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 1525 | 1384 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | ST | 19 | 955 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 1546 | 1469 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 11 | 460 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1558 | 1428 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 1730 | 57% | 3 | 9 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 1530 | 1472 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | ST | 27 | 1888 | 62% | 10 | 4 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 1501 | 1468 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 437 | 14% | 4 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 1553 | 1594 | 1.06 |
| 2014/15 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 1990 | 65% | 9 | 4 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 1545 | 1451 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 3 | 128 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1522 | 1423 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 4 | 193 | 3 | 0 | 1361 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 82 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 170 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 3 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 140 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 2 | 62 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 2 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Hertha BSC | 3 | 238 | 4 | 0 | 1453 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 3 | 167 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Fortounis Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Carlitos Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €2.0M | €250k | fell |
| Ahmed Hassan Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Fredrik Gulbrandsen Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €2.2M | €1.3M | fell |
| Martin Boyle Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Fabio Borini Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| André Luis Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mortadha Ben Ouanes Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Hamburg | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 1.FC Köln | Hamburg | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 2 Jan 2023 | Hertha BSC | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Werder Bremen | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Hertha BSC | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Leipzig | Hertha BSC | €8.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Werder Bremen | Leipzig | €8.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | W. Bremen II | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | W. Bremen U19 | W. Bremen II | Unknown | €100k |
| 31 Jan 2013 | Hoffenheim U19 | W. Bremen U19 | €50k | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Hoffenheim U17 | Hoffenheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Hoffenheim Yth. | Hoffenheim U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | N. Gmünd Yth. | Hoffenheim Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Stuttgart Yth. | N. Gmünd Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2008 | S. Kickers Yth. | Stuttgart Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.