Giovanni González
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giovanni González's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €928k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1474 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 17)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1536
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €406k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; relative output up 161% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -71% (IQR -74% to -65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1474 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | RB | 24 | 1474 | 55% | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1322 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | RB | 22 | 1033 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1286 | 1511 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 34 | 2464 | 72% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1499 | 1436 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 15 | 923 | 27% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 1565 | 1430 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 9 | 363 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 1470 | 1378 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 9 | 545 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 5 | 350 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 8 | 708 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 4 | 287 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Oliveira Liga Portugal · 2024 | 32 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ugur Ucar Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €1.8M | €200k | fell |
| Eric Botteghin Eredivisie · 2019 | 32 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Hélder Lopes Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €1.8M | €550k | fell |
| Tom Högli Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 30 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Ivan Obradovic Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Dmytro Chygrynskyi Super League 1 · 2018 | 32 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| Yevgen Khacheridi Premier Liga · 2018 | 31 | €3.0M | €950k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2024 | RCD Mallorca | Krasnodar | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Peñarol | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 3 Jan 2018 | River Plate | Peñarol | €167k | €375k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | River Plate U19 | River Plate | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.