Alessio Castro-Montes

The model rates Alessio Castro-Montes's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.66x the positional average in the league (812 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

812 (27% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.44

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.41

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

52 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.94 (rank 6)

Team strength (Elo)

1386

Opponent strength

1482

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€731k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-159 Elo); league level up (+92 Elo); relative output up 76% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -62% to -21%).

• ▲Small sample: 812 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.