Edu Expósito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Edu Expósito's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (2542 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2542 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 44 pts; role change AM -> CM; relative output up 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -68% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2542 | 74% | 1 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 1486 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | AM | 19 | 1045 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 1515 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 28 | 1159 | 34% | 2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 1503 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | SD Eibar | Laliga | CM | 31 | 2461 | 72% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1544 | 1415 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | SD Eibar | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2311 | 68% | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1548 | 1506 | 1.16 |
| 2017/18 | Deportivo de La Coruña | Laliga | CM | 3 | 94 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1685 | 1380 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Deportivo de La Coruña | Laliga | CM | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1537 | 1440 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 4 | 311 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 3 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 3 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo de La Coruña | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Didavi Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Robin Gosens Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nicolas de Préville Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mikel Vesga Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Luis Milla Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Marco Fabián Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Craig Gardner Premier League · 2015 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Vincent Sierro Ligue 1 · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2022 | SD Eibar | Espanyol | €4.5M | €4.0M |
| 13 Jul 2019 | Dep. La Coruña | SD Eibar | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Depor Fabril | Dep. La Coruña | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Damm U19 | Deportivo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Gavà U19 | Damm U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.