Ilias Chatzitheodoridis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilias Chatzitheodoridis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €276k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1117 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1214
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €235k – €531k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -36% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1117 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | LB | 17 | 1117 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1214 | 1225 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | LB | 23 | 1855 | 79% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1249 | 1196 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | DM | 20 | 1280 | 55% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1280 | 1147 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | LB | 15 | 898 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 1311 | 1164 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 5 | 160 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.18 | 1183 | 1348 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 5 | 280 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1211 | 1362 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 17 | 912 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1264 | 1365 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 20 | 941 | 35% | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 1251 | 1306 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 5 | 357 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 6 | 355 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 5 | 341 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 190 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 5 | 353 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carmona Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Valentinos Vlachos Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Diamantis Chouchoumis Super League 1 · 2024 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Yevgen Selin Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Jesper Lauridsen Superliga · 2021 | 30 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Athanasios Papageorgiou Super League 1 · 2015 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Theodoros Tripotseris Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Lubambo Musonda Superliga · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | OFI Crete | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Panetolikos | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Panathinaikos | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 25 Jul 2018 | Brentford | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 May 2018 | Cheltenham | Brentford | Free / loan | €100k |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Brentford | Cheltenham | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Brentford B | Brentford | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Aug 2016 | Arsenal U18 | Brentford B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.