Savvas Mourgos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Savvas Mourgos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (1029 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €136k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1029 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1243
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €260k – €456k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -43% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1029 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | RW | 21 | 1029 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.39 | 1243 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | RW | 21 | 971 | 41% | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.46 | 1261 | 1189 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | 3 | 177 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panserraikos Serres | 4 | 237 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panagiotis Moraitis Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Washington Brandão Superliga · 2019 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Toni Calvo Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Volodymyr Odaryuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Vasilios Koutsianikoulis Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Antonio Rojano Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 27 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Nikolaos Vergos Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Bachana Arabuli Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | AE Larisa | Panionios | Free / loan | €400k |
| 16 Jul 2024 | Panserraikos | AE Larisa | Free / loan | €400k |
| 5 Jul 2022 | Veria NPS | Panserraikos | Free / loan | €350k |
| 7 Oct 2020 | Without Club | Veria NPS | Unknown | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Norwich City U23 | Without Club | Unknown | €175k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Dordrecht | Norwich City U23 | Free / loan | €175k |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Norwich City U23 | FC Dordrecht | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Oct 2018 | FC Dordrecht | Norwich City U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Norwich City U23 | FC Dordrecht | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Aug 2017 | Arsenal U23 | Norwich City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Panionios U20 | Arsenal U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.