Antoine Bernier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antoine Bernier's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1650 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €996k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1650 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1307
- Opponent strength
- 1383
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €484k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -59% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1650 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 28 | 1650 | 61% | 3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 1383 | 1307 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 28 | 1678 | 62% | 3 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 1375 | 1315 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 21 | 656 | 24% | 2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 1389 | 1268 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 22 | 1738 | 57% | 3 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 1302 | 1128 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 29 | 1880 | 61% | 1 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 1341 | 1144 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | 10 | 725 | 4 | 1 | 1379 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Boateng Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Cristian Pasquato Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| William Owusu Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Denis Tkachuk Premier Liga · 2019 | 30 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Bruno Moreira Liga Portugal · 2015 | 28 | €2.2M | €800k | fell |
| Souleymane Doukara Super Lig · 2018 | 27 | €1.3M | €1.6M | rose |
| Adis Jahovic Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Djordje Despotovic Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €1.5M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | RFC Seraing | R Charleroi SC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Antwerp U21 | RFC Seraing | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | F91 Dudelange | Antwerp U21 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Antwerp U21 | F91 Dudelange | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | KSK Lierse Kem. | Antwerp U21 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 15 Jan 2019 | Antwerp U21 | KSK Lierse Kem. | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Anderlecht U21 | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Anderlecht U19 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.