Maduka Okoye
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maduka Okoye's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-13.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-13.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.3M-14.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.8M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2617 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1506
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.3M – €14.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -67% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | GK | 30 | 2617 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1506 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | GK | 25 | 2250 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1514 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | GK | 21 | 1890 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1501 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 30 | 2634 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1340 | 1295 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1344 | 1320 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Omlin Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €9.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Gerónimo Rulli Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Anton Shunin Premier Liga · 2013 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Walter Benítez Ligue 1 · 2019 | 26 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Ralf Fährmann Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Alfred Gomis Ligue 1 · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Emiliano Viviano Serie A · 2015 | 30 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2023 | Watford | Udinese | €6.0M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Sparta R. | Watford | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 2 Jan 2022 | Watford | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Sparta R. | Watford | €5.0M | €1.0M |
| 15 Jul 2020 | Düsseldorf II | Sparta R. | €750k | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Düsseldorf U19 | Düsseldorf II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Leverkusen U19 | Düsseldorf U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Leverkusen U17 | Leverkusen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Leverkusen Yth. | Leverkusen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | M'gladbach Yth. | Leverkusen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Düsseldorf Yth. | M'gladbach Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.