Gerónimo Rulli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gerónimo Rulli's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 91.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1461
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €2.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -80% to -61%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | GK | 29 | 2610 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1461 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1439 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 7 | 572 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1317 | 1439 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 19 | 1710 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1356 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | GK | 14 | 1260 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1497 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1538 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1615 | 1676 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | GK | 25 | 2250 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1419 | 1463 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1548 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1550 | 1535 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1558 | 1562 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3192 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1581 | 1543 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1583 | 1552 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1629 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1742 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 13 | 1200 | 0 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 706 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Real Sociedad | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Bizot Ligue 1 · 2024 | 33 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sergey Ryzhikov Premier Liga · 2014 | 34 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Diego López Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Salvatore Sirigu Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €7.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2023 | 33 | €8.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Samir Handanovic Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Kevin Trapp Bundesliga · 2024 | 34 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Rui Patrício Serie A · 2023 | 35 | €5.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2024 | Ajax | Marseille | €4.0M | €5.0M |
| 6 Jan 2023 | Villarreal | Ajax | €8.0M | €10.0M |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Real Sociedad | Villarreal | €5.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Montpellier | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 14 Aug 2019 | Real Sociedad | Montpellier | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Man City | Real Sociedad | €7.0M | €8.0M |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Real Sociedad | Man City | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 9 Aug 2016 | Man City | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 8 Aug 2016 | CD Maldonado | Man City | €4.7M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Real Sociedad | CD Maldonado | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 24 Jul 2014 | CD Maldonado | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Estudiantes LP | CD Maldonado | €3.5M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Estudiantes U20 | Estudiantes LP | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.