Bryan Goncalves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bryan Goncalves's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €315k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1604 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1398
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €188k – €424k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -52% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1604 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 20 | 1604 | 59% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1398 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 19 | 1026 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1424 | 1267 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | FCV Dender EH | 6 | 509 | 1 | 0 | 1295 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Santos Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Bebeto Liga Portugal · 2021 | 31 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| William Klaus Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Borja López Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| César Martins Liga Portugal · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €675k | flat |
| Zach Muscat Liga Portugal · 2024 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Thomas Phibel Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Rúben Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FCV Dender EH | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | SK Beveren | FCV Dender EH | Unknown | €800k |
| 31 Jul 2023 | Stade Lavallois | SK Beveren | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Versailles | Stade Lavallois | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Dec 2019 | Racing Besançon | FC Versailles | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Houilles | Racing Besançon | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Marseille B | Houilles | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | FC Saint-Leu | Marseille B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Aug 2017 | Toulouse Rodéo | FC Saint-Leu | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jan 2017 | Without Club | Toulouse Rodéo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Paris SG B | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Paris SG U19 | Paris SG B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.