Jaume Grau
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jaume Grau's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1326 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €358k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1326 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €342k – €607k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; role change CM -> DM; relative output down 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -53% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1326 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | DM | 18 | 1326 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1322 | 1182 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | CM | 29 | 2123 | 69% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 1353 | 1154 | 0.51 |
| 2020/21 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CM | 30 | 2095 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1357 | 1242 | 0.61 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Canesin Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 28 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Volodymyr Arzhanov Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Valeriy Chuperka Premier Liga · 2021 | 29 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Mingiyan Beveev Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €600k | €1.8M | rose |
| Paulo Tavares Liga Portugal · 2016 | 31 | €700k | €200k | fell |
| Catalin Carp Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Bryan Idowu Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Yevgen Pisotskyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | Avs FS | TJ Jinmen Tiger | Unknown | €700k |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Real Zaragoza | Avs FS | Free / loan | €700k |
| 19 Jan 2022 | CA Osasuna | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Tondela | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €800k |
| 24 Aug 2020 | CA Osasuna | Tondela | Free / loan | €300k |
| 21 Jul 2020 | CD Lugo | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 9 Jul 2019 | CA Osasuna | CD Lugo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 8 Jul 2019 | RM Castilla | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Navalcarnero | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €150k |
| 22 Jul 2016 | RM Castilla | Navalcarnero | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Valencia CF You | Real Madrid U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.