Mingiyan Beveev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mingiyan Beveev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (2323 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2323 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1351
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €622k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -69% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | LM | 28 | 2323 | 86% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 1351 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | Ural Yekaterinburg | Premier Liga | LM | 18 | 1067 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1355 | 1214 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | Ural Yekaterinburg | Premier Liga | LB | 25 | 1878 | 70% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1301 | 1271 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 5 | 190 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Ural Yekaterinburg | 8 | 605 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | Ural Yekaterinburg | 9 | 756 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | Nosta Novotroitsk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitolo Super League 1 · 2013 | 30 | €2.3M | €700k | fell |
| Ryota Morioka Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 30 | €2.2M | €750k | fell |
| Ben Rienstra Eredivisie · 2019 | 29 | €1.5M | €450k | fell |
| Julien Gorius Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
| Sébastien Siani Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Gertjan De Mets Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 29 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Andraz Kirm Eredivisie · 2013 | 29 | €1.6M | €1.2M | fell |
| Joey van den Berg Eredivisie · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Ural | Baltika | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Enisey | Ural | €200k | €400k |
| 25 Jan 2022 | KamAZ | Enisey | Free / loan | €300k |
| 27 Jan 2020 | Ural 2 | KamAZ | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Nosta | Ural 2 | Unknown | €100k |
| 12 Jul 2017 | Volgar | Nosta | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Nosta | Volgar | Free / loan | €50k |
| 9 Feb 2017 | Volgar | Nosta | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | MITOS | Volgar | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Volgar | MITOS | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Volgar II | Volgar | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.