Cengiz Ünder
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cengiz Ünder's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1173 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1173 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.61
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1351
- Opponent strength
- 1242
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €934k – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -63% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1173 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | RW | 26 | 1165 | 38% | 5 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.43 | 1242 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RW | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1112 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | LW | 3 | 30 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1367 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RW | 24 | 1029 | 30% | 9 | 3 | 1.05 | 0.44 | 1259 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 37 | 2495 | 73% | 5 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 1428 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 32 | 2208 | 65% | 10 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 1436 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Leicester City | Premier League | RW | 9 | 275 | 8% | 0 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 1546 | 1585 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RW | 18 | 873 | 26% | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 1403 | 1582 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RW | 26 | 1379 | 40% | 3 | 7 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 1446 | 1595 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RW | 26 | 1254 | 37% | 7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.32 | 1453 | 1712 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | LM | 32 | 2511 | 82% | 7 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 1386 | 1517 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 4 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 446 | 1 | 1 | 1462 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 8 | 501 | 1 | 1 | 1468 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 166 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 3 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 6 | 437 | 3 | 2 | 1663 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 76 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 5 | 236 | 1 | 1 | 1715 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 4 | 175 | 0 | 1 | 1560 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Evrard Kouassi Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Anthony Mounier Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €1.8M | €300k | fell |
| Matías Suárez Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €6.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Cédric Bakambu Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Isaac Kiese Thelin Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €2.7M | €2.2M | flat |
| Fabio Borini Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Ahmed Hassan Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Vincent Aboubakar Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Besiktas | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 8 Sept 2025 | Fenerbahçe | Besiktas | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 11 Jun 2025 | LAFC | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 20 Feb 2025 | Fenerbahçe | LAFC | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 13 Aug 2023 | Marseille | Fenerbahçe | €15.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Roma | Marseille | €11.4M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Marseille | Roma | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 4 Jul 2021 | Roma | Marseille | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Leicester | Roma | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 20 Sept 2020 | Roma | Leicester | Free / loan | €23.0M |
| 16 Jul 2017 | Basaksehir | Roma | €14.3M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Altinordu | Basaksehir | €4.8M | €1.5M |
| 21 Dec 2014 | Altinordu U21 | Altinordu | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Altinordu U19 | Altinordu U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Altinordu U16 | Altinordu U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jan 2013 | Bucaspor Yth | Altinordu U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.