Gustav Marcussen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gustav Marcussen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1611 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €400k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1611 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €374k – €796k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -52% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1611 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Fredericia | Superliga | LW | 21 | 1611 | 81% | 4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 1271 | 1183 | 0.47 |
| 2020/21 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | LW | 2 | 45 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1390 | 1164 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | LW | 20 | 961 | 41% | 3 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 1268 | 1176 | 0.41 |
| 2017/18 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | LW | 11 | 701 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 1277 | 1197 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Fredericia | 3 | 193 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 2 | 192 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandi Krizman Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Mikkel Rygaard Superliga · 2018 | 28 | €500k | €550k | flat |
| Serginho Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €1.3M | €650k | fell |
| German Onugkha Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €1.7M | €1.8M | flat |
| Barrie McKay Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €850k | €250k | fell |
| Fábio Sturgeon Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Maksym Feshchuk Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €600k | €550k | flat |
| Georgios Pamlidis Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €600k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Fredericia | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €750k |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Fremad Amager | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 12 Jan 2022 | Silkeborg IF | Fremad Amager | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jul 2021 | KFC Uerdingen | Silkeborg IF | Free / loan | €300k |
| 23 Sept 2020 | Lyngby BK | KFC Uerdingen | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lyngby BK U19 | Lyngby BK | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lyngby BK Youth | Lyngby BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.