Nicolas Pépé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolas Pépé's performance-implied value at EUR 10.9M-20.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-3.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (2397 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2397 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.68
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €3.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -57% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 36 | 2397 | 70% | 8 | 10 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 1475 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 28 | 1496 | 44% | 3 | 6 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 1509 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | RW | 19 | 1123 | 33% | 5 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.49 | 1292 | 1379 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RW | 19 | 1529 | 45% | 6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 1448 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RW | 20 | 681 | 20% | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 1486 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | RW | 29 | 1612 | 47% | 10 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.45 | 1572 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2018/19 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RW | 38 | 3332 | 97% | 22 | 11 | 0.89 | 0.77 | 1461 | 1543 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RW | 36 | 2846 | 83% | 13 | 5 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 1438 | 1372 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | RW | 33 | 1309 | 38% | 3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 1447 | 1417 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 8 | 611 | 0 | 1 | 1590 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 175 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ivory Coast | 3 | 149 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 13 | 902 | 6 | 4 | 1521 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 195 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bafétimbi Gomis Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Lars Stindl Bundesliga · 2021 | 33 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ari Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €6.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ante Budimir Laliga · 2024 | 33 | €5.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Cristhian Stuani Laliga · 2018 | 32 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Alexander Meier Bundesliga · 2015 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Salomon Kalou Bundesliga · 2016 | 31 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Fernando Llorente Premier League · 2017 | 32 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2024 | Trabzonspor | Villarreal | Free / loan | €8.5M |
| 8 Sept 2023 | Arsenal | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Nice | Arsenal | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 25 Aug 2022 | Arsenal | Nice | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Lille | Arsenal | €80.0M | €65.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Angers SCO | Lille | €18.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | US Orléans | Angers SCO | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2015 | Angers SCO | US Orléans | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Angers SCO B | Angers SCO | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stade Poitevin | Angers SCO B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | S.Poitevin U19 | Stade Poitevin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.