Ante Budimir

35 yrs · Striker · Croatia
CA Osasuna · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€944k – €2.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.5M – €4.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€708k – €1.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€432k – €3.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€944k – €2.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.5M – €4.7M
Projected value (24 months)€708k – €1.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ante Budimir's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-4.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (2953 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh88.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.3M vs market €2.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-62% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2953 (86% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.52
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.50
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1427
Opponent strength
1478
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€708k – €1.9M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 31% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -71% to -26%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CA OsasunaLaligaST37295386%1700.520.50147814270.95
2024/25CA OsasunaLaligaST38296787%2140.760.76150714840.95
2023/24CA OsasunaLaligaST33244972%1720.700.75148714421.00
2022/23CA OsasunaLaligaST31180953%810.450.51147514550.98
2021/22CA OsasunaLaligaST28174051%820.520.57151614461.05
2020/21CA OsasunaLaligaST30162347%1100.610.72157214711.10
2019/20RCD MallorcaLaligaST35278281%1330.520.79155114151.16
2017/18FC CrotoneSerie AST22159046%600.340.58148613280.86
2016/17UC SampdoriaSerie AST113049%000.000.44148114140.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupCroatia211110—
2025/26Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna36020—
2024/25Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna428230—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingCA Osasuna2114101505
2023/24Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna210800—
2023/24SupercopaCA Osasuna190001695
2022/23Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna636000—
2021/22Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna29710—
2020/21Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna213910—
2019/20Copa Del ReyRCD Mallorca19000—
2017/18Italy CupFC Crotone216310—
2016/17Italy CupUC Sampdoria317510—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Iago Aspas
Laliga · 2023
36€6.0M€2.0Mfell
Florian Sotoca
Ligue 1 · 2024
34€3.0M€1.2Mfell
Francesco Caputo
Serie A · 2023
36€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Fabio Quagliarella
Serie A · 2017
34€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Daniel Caligiuri
Bundesliga · 2021
33€2.0M€600kfell
Riki
Laliga · 2013
33€2.0M€500kfell
Halil Altintop
Bundesliga · 2015
33€2.0M€500kfell
Jimmy Briand
Ligue 1 · 2017
32€2.5M€2.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021RCD MallorcaCA Osasuna€8.0M€9.0M
30 Jun 2021CA OsasunaRCD MallorcaFree / loan€9.0M
5 Oct 2020RCD MallorcaCA OsasunaFree / loan€15.0M
1 Jul 2019CrotoneRCD Mallorca€2.2M€1.4M
30 Jun 2019RCD MallorcaCrotoneFree / loan€1.4M
15 Jan 2019CrotoneRCD MallorcaFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2018SampdoriaCrotone€1.7M€1.5M
30 Jun 2018CrotoneSampdoriaFree / loan€1.5M
5 Jul 2017SampdoriaCrotoneFree / loan€1.5M
5 Jul 2016CrotoneSampdoria€1.8M€3.0M
1 Jul 2016St. PauliCrotone€1.0M€3.0M
30 Jun 2016CrotoneSt. PauliFree / loan€3.0M
31 Aug 2015St. PauliCrotoneFree / loan€600k
4 Aug 2014NK LokomotivaSt. Pauli€1.0M€950k
5 Jul 2013Inter ZapresicNK LokomotivaUnknown€850k
28 Jan 2011HNK GoricaInter Zapresic€20k€50k
21 Aug 2009Without ClubHNK GoricaUnknown€50k
1 Oct 2008LASKWithout ClubUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2008NK RadnikLASKUnknown€50k

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.