Jamie McGrath

30 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also LM) · Ireland
Hibernian FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2029
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€416k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€616k – €1.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€392k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€435k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€416k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€616k – €1.7M
Projected value (24 months)€392k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jamie McGrath's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (2269 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 56

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage39.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €626k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.2M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2269 (76% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.44
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
39 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1281
Opponent strength
1193
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€392k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; changed club; team strength up (+94 Elo); role change LM -> AM; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -51% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
10 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–107%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
80%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Hibernian FCScottish PremiershipAM31226976%830.440.36119312800.31
2024/25Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipLM20156853%460.570.36123611860.34
2023/24Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipAM30230077%810.350.38123411860.34
2022/23Dundee United FCScottish PremiershipAM27196566%620.370.44130611760.40
2020/21St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipAM30245183%720.330.50131512550.54
2019/20St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipAM738114%000.000.44129911680.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingHibernian FC2199101391
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingHibernian FC3184001398
2025/26Scottish Fa CupHibernian FC19000—
2024/25Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC15100—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC328711—
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC298001376
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingDundee United FC2121011485
2022/23Scottish Fa CupDundee United FC16810—
2020/21Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC439033—
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingDundalk FC4380001348
2019/20Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC430900—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingDundalk FC2169001353

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Vyacheslav Tankovskyi
Premier Liga · 2024
29€1.0M€600kfell
Charilaos Charisis
Super Lig · 2024
29€1.0M€600kfell
Joe Newell
Scottish Premiership · 2023
30€800k€700kflat
Emanuel Insúa
Super League 1 · 2019
28€1.3M€600kfell
James Jeggo
Super League 1 · 2021
29€900k€700kfell
Arnaud Djoum
Scottish Premiership · 2019
30€650k€500kfell
Kyrylo Kovalets
Premier Liga · 2023
30€700k€350kfell
Matty Kennedy
Scottish Premiership · 2024
30€350k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Aberdeen FCHibernian FCFree / loan€1.2M
22 Aug 2023WiganAberdeen FCFree / loan€400k
31 May 2023Dundee UnitedWiganFree / loan€500k
3 Aug 2022WiganDundee UnitedFree / loan€800k
31 Jan 2022St. MirrenWiganUnknown€900k
7 Jan 2020Dundalk FCSt. MirrenFree / loanData unavailable
15 Jan 2017St. Pat'sDundalk FCUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2015Pat's AcademySt. Pat'sUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013UCD AcademyPat's AcademyFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Jamie McGrath · MoneyballAI