
Jamie McGrath
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jamie McGrath's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (2269 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €626k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2269 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1193
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €392k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; changed club; team strength up (+94 Elo); role change LM -> AM; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -51% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 31 | 2269 | 76% | 8 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 1193 | 1280 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | LM | 20 | 1568 | 53% | 4 | 6 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 1236 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 30 | 2300 | 77% | 8 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 1234 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 27 | 1965 | 66% | 6 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 1306 | 1176 | 0.40 |
| 2020/21 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 30 | 2451 | 83% | 7 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 1315 | 1255 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 7 | 381 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1299 | 1168 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 2 | 199 | 1 | 0 | 1391 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 3 | 184 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 287 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 2 | 121 | 0 | 1 | 1485 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 68 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 390 | 3 | 3 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dundalk FC | 4 | 380 | 0 | 0 | 1348 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 309 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Dundalk FC | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1353 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vyacheslav Tankovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Charilaos Charisis Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Joe Newell Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Emanuel Insúa Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| James Jeggo Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Arnaud Djoum Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 30 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Kyrylo Kovalets Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Matty Kennedy Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €350k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Aberdeen FC | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 22 Aug 2023 | Wigan | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 May 2023 | Dundee United | Wigan | Free / loan | €500k |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Wigan | Dundee United | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | St. Mirren | Wigan | Unknown | €900k |
| 7 Jan 2020 | Dundalk FC | St. Mirren | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Jan 2017 | St. Pat's | Dundalk FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Pat's Academy | St. Pat's | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | UCD Academy | Pat's Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.