Jean-Kévin Duverne
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jean-Kévin Duverne's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 37.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €814k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 735 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €597k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+131 Elo); role change RB -> CB; relative output down 50% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -70% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 735 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 14 | 735 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 1331 | 1403 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 7 | 630 | 23% | 3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 1399 | 1201 | 0.63 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CB | 9 | 538 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1398 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CB | 19 | 1350 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1489 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LB | 34 | 2513 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1456 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | LB | 37 | 3006 | 88% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1422 | 1369 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2024 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1454 | 1306 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 14 | 1177 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1409 | 1320 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KAA Gent | 8 | 421 | 1 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Haiti | 2 | 170 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dany Nounkeu Super Lig · 2016 | 30 | €1.6M | €300k | fell |
| Kévin Constant Super Lig · 2016 | 29 | €1.8M | €450k | fell |
| Florentin Pogba Super Lig · 2018 | 28 | €1.5M | €475k | fell |
| Ramin Rezaeian Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €475k | fell |
| Elderson Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Maikel van der Werff Eredivisie · 2018 | 29 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Saulius Mikoliunas Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Ivo Pinto Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | KAA Gent | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 8 Sept 2025 | FC Nantes | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | KV Kortrijk | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 29 Jan 2025 | FC Nantes | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | Stade Brestois | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Lens | Stade Brestois | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 14 Sept 2016 | RC Lens B | Lens | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | RC Lens U19 | RC Lens B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.