Murilo

The model rates Murilo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.33x the positional average in the league (2592 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2592 (85% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.52

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.52

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

43 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1303

Opponent strength

1321

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

insufficient

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€319k – €610k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -59% to -28%).

• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

58 (ATT)

Relative output kept

71%–130%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

66%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.