Danel Sinani
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danel Sinani's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-6.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (2069 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2069 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1512
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €996k – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; relative output up 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -55% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 2069 | 68% | 5 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 1512 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | AM | 26 | 1253 | 41% | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 1505 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 18 | 1097 | 36% | 3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 1343 | 1187 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 3 | 211 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Huddersfield Town | 3 | 168 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Greco Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Soualiho Meïté Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andrea Rispoli Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Darko Lazović Serie A · 2019 | 29 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Prince Oniangué Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Ondrej Duda Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Tonny Vilhena Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Alessandro Deiola Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.9M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | St. Pauli | Without Club | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Norwich | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Wigan | Norwich | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Norwich | Wigan | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 May 2022 | Huddersfield | Norwich | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 28 Jul 2021 | Norwich | Huddersfield | Free / loan | €550k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Waasland-Beveren | Norwich | Free / loan | €550k |
| 22 Sept 2020 | Norwich | Waasland-Beveren | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | F91 Dudelange | Norwich | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RFCU Luxembourg | F91 Dudelange | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | RFCU Luxem. U19 | RFCU Luxembourg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FCD03 Youth | RFCU Luxem. U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.