Mehdi Léris
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mehdi Léris's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.58x the positional average in the league (1907 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €703k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1907 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €780k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -43% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | RM | 34 | 1907 | 56% | 2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.35 | 1484 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2022/23 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | RW | 32 | 2465 | 72% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 1483 | 1271 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | RW | 20 | 370 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1438 | 1440 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | RM | 15 | 499 | 15% | 1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 1466 | 1374 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Chievo Verona | Serie A | CM | 23 | 1610 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 1450 | 1208 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Chievo Verona | Serie A | AM | 4 | 38 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1705 | 1341 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 3 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Chievo Verona | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kévin N'Doram Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Cristian Battocchio Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €1.7M | €1.5M | flat |
| Mathias Autret Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Domen Crnigoj Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Danilo Soddimo Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €1.1M | €800k | fell |
| Luca Mazzitelli Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Gerson Acevedo Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €1.4M | €2.5M | rose |
| Liam Henderson Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €2.8M | €1.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2024 | Stoke City | Pisa | €3.0M | €2.5M |
| 22 Aug 2023 | Sampdoria | Stoke City | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Brescia | Sampdoria | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 18 Aug 2021 | Sampdoria | Brescia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 12 Aug 2019 | Chievo Verona | Sampdoria | €3.1M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chievo U19 | Chievo Verona | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Juventus U19 | Chievo U19 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 20 Jul 2016 | Chievo U19 | Juventus U19 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Chievo U17 | Chievo U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | St. Montois U19 | Chievo U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.