Leonardo Lopes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leonardo Lopes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1595 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1595 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1357
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €772k – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; relative output up 67% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -53% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1595 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 27 | 1595 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1357 | 1403 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 9 | 642 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1396 | 1422 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 23 | 1797 | 67% | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 1373 | 1394 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 25 | 1979 | 65% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1315 | 1373 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 31 | 2399 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1355 | 1305 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 19 | 955 | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 1342 | 1228 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KAA Gent | 9 | 736 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Bezus Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Sambou Yatabaré Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Darko Jevtic Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Mehmet Güven Super Lig · 2014 | 27 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| David Pavelka Super Lig · 2017 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.6M | flat |
| Fransérgio Liga Portugal · 2019 | 29 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Diego Biseswar Super Lig · 2014 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.2M | rose |
| Valon Berisha Ligue 1 · 2021 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2024 | Without Club | KAA Gent | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Cercle Brugge | Without Club | Unknown | €4.5M |
| 10 Sept 2020 | Hull City | Cercle Brugge | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Wigan | Hull City | Unknown | €500k |
| 31 May 2019 | Gillingham | Wigan | Free / loan | €750k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Wigan | Gillingham | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Peterborough | Wigan | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Peterb. U18 | Peterborough | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.