Junya Ito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Junya Ito's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1027 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 59.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -71% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1027 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1471
- Opponent strength
- 1365
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €634k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 50 pts; changed club; team strength up (+114 Elo); league level down (-87 Elo); relative output up 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -70% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1027 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 18 | 1027 | 38% | 4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.42 | 1365 | 1471 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | RW | 33 | 2702 | 88% | 4 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 1450 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | RW | 31 | 2723 | 89% | 3 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 1486 | 1419 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | RW | 35 | 2931 | 86% | 6 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 1440 | 1425 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1519 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 34 | 2694 | 88% | 8 | 15 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 1348 | 1356 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 32 | 2725 | 89% | 10 | 12 | 0.73 | 0.49 | 1345 | 1414 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 29 | 2343 | 90% | 5 | 7 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 1368 | 1429 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 4 | 189 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.30 | 1295 | 1557 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KRC Genk | 10 | 760 | 2 | 3 | 1342 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 420 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 3 | 138 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 445 | 0 | 2 | 1591 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 1555 |
| 2021/22 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | KRC Genk | 6 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 1748 |
| 2019/20 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Adriano Premier Liga · 2019 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jérémy Perbet Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 33 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Aatif Chahechouhe Super Lig · 2017 | 31 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Edin Visca Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Vágner Love Super Lig · 2018 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kevin-Prince Boateng Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Khalid Boutaïb Super Lig · 2019 | 32 | €1.5M | €450k | fell |
| Nikola Storm Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | Stade Reims | Genk | €2.8M | €6.0M |
| 29 Jul 2022 | Genk | Stade Reims | €10.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Kashiwa Reysol | Genk | Unknown | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Genk | Kashiwa Reysol | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Kashiwa Reysol | Genk | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 8 Jan 2016 | Ventforet Kofu | Kashiwa Reysol | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Feb 2015 | Kanagawa Uni | Ventforet Kofu | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2011 | High School (J) | Kanagawa Uni | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.