Juninho Bacuna
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juninho Bacuna's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.36x the positional average in the league (923 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €570k vs market €1.7M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 923 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1116
- Opponent strength
- 1290
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €631k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -46% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 923 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | CM | 13 | 709 | 23% | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 1290 | 1101 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | DM | 9 | 214 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1357 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2018/19 | Huddersfield Town | Premier League | CM | 21 | 1416 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 1586 | 1321 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CM | 33 | 2594 | 85% | 1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 1322 | 1346 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CM | 24 | 1782 | 58% | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1335 | 1345 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CM | 14 | 768 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1354 | 1337 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | AM | 12 | 134 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1354 | 1328 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Curaçao | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Huddersfield Town | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Groningen | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | FC Groningen | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endri Cekici Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Dominik Furman Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Lebogang Phiri Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €600k | €150k | fell |
| Alexander Merkel Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €850k | €900k | flat |
| Jamiro Monteiro Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €2.0M | €650k | fell |
| Saeed Ezatolahi Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Bryan Dabo Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €550k | €500k | flat |
| Faris Haroun Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Volendam | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 3 Feb 2026 | Gaziantep FK | FC Volendam | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 11 Jul 2025 | Al-Wehda | Gaziantep FK | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Birmingham | Al-Wehda | Unknown | €3.6M |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Rangers | Birmingham | Unknown | €4.5M |
| 19 Aug 2021 | Huddersfield | Rangers | €2.3M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Groningen | Huddersfield | €2.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Groningen U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Gron./Cam. U19 | Gron./Cam. U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Groningen U17 | Gron./Cam. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Groningen Youth | Groningen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | GRC Yth. | Groningen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.