Atanas Chernev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Atanas Chernev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €568k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1018 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1299
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €435k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -14% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1018 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | CB | 15 | 1018 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1299 | 1195 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myenty Abena Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €450k | €600k | rose |
| Erving Botaka Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Talys Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Omurwa Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Valtteri Moren Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €400k | €600k | rose |
| Erick Ferigra Liga Portugal · 2023 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Connor Randall Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 26 | €400k | €450k | flat |
| Andriy Slinkin Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €400k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 1.FC K'lautern | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €700k |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Estrela Amadora | 1.FC K'lautern | Free / loan | €700k |
| 2 Jul 2025 | Botev Plovdiv | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Botev U19 | Botev Plovdiv | Unknown | €50k |
| 12 May 2020 | Getafe U19 | Botev U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2020 | Botev U19 | Getafe U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.