Erick Ferigra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Erick Ferigra's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €177k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1143 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1222
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €292k – €573k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -28% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1143 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | CB | 14 | 1143 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1222 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2022/23 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 16 | 1154 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1407 | 1231 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | 2 | 100 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Aurtenetxe Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 26 | €375k | €300k | fell |
| Valeriy Rogozynskyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Delphin Tshiembe Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 28 | €400k | €50k | fell |
| Vladimir Dimitrovski Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Christopher Braun Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €250k | €450k | rose |
| Stefan Velkov Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Navajo Bakboord Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Nikolay Zolotov Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Paços Ferreira | AE Larisa | Free / loan | €500k |
| 23 Aug 2022 | UD Las Palmas | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Torino | UD Las Palmas | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Ascoli | Torino | Free / loan | €400k |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Torino | Ascoli | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Fiorentina U19 | Torino | €150k | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Torino U19 | Fiorentina U19 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Fiorentina U19 | Torino U19 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 6 Aug 2016 | Barça U19 | Fiorentina U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.