Benjamin Pavard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Benjamin Pavard's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-12.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.9M-12.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-6.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2019 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1514
- Opponent strength
- 1446
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €6.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-305 Elo); relative output up 142% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -71% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 1929 | 63% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1446 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1458 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1584 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1533 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1677 | 49% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1479 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2431 | 79% | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 1513 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RB | 25 | 2081 | 68% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1493 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RB | 24 | 1943 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1501 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RB | 32 | 2790 | 91% | 4 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 1517 | 1892 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2606 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1501 | 1402 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1518 | 1506 | 1.04 |
| 2015/16 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 13 | 634 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1511 | 1503 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 8 | 508 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1401 | 1454 | 0.80 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 538 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 12 | 908 | 1 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1618 |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 9 | 593 | 2 | 0 | 1729 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 10 | 764 | 0 | 1 | 1654 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 570 | 0 | 2 | 1656 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Super Cup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 8 | 638 | 0 | 2 | 1617 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gigot Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €9.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Guillermo Maripán Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ignazio Abate Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Abdoulay Konko Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €7.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Federico Peluso Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ruben Aguilar Ligue 1 · 2021 | 28 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Yuriy Zhirkov Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Cristian Ansaldi Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Marseille | Inter | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Inter | Marseille | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | Bayern Munich | Inter | €32.4M | €40.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Stuttgart | Bayern Munich | €35.0M | €30.0M |
| 30 Aug 2016 | Lille | Stuttgart | €5.0M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | LOSC Lille B | Lille | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | LOSC Lille U19 | LOSC Lille B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | LOSC Lille U17 | LOSC Lille U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | LOSC Lille Yth. | LOSC Lille U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.