Jordan

30 yrs · Striker · United States
CD Tondela · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€431k – €1.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€523k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€462k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€655k – €841k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€431k – €1.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€523k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€462k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jordan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (1239 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 56

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average26.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €575k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1239 (41% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.35
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
26 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1194
Opponent strength
1323
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€462k – €1.3M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-189 Elo); league level down (-129 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -70% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1239 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (ATT)
Relative output kept
71%–130%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
66%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CD TondelaLiga PortugalST22123940%100.070.35132311940.58
2024/251.FC Union BerlinBundesligaST1890730%010.100.28145113940.94
2024/25Stade ReimsLigue 1ST738413%100.230.47142313570.88
2023/24Borussia MönchengladbachBundesligaST25142447%540.570.57151514351.01
2023/241.FC Union BerlinBundesligaST1261%000.000.29131814311.01
2022/231.FC Union BerlinBundesligaST31135644%430.460.42152615871.04
2019/20Stade Rennais FCLigue 1ST1443517%010.210.36138915070.82
2018/19Stade Rennais FCLigue 1ST1560018%310.600.56146214880.82
2015/16Stade ReimsLigue 1ST2583324%330.650.68141813330.78
2014/15Stade ReimsLigue 1ST1231%000.000.48135013590.80

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin217000—
2023/24Dfb PokalBorussia Mönchengladbach215520—
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin12200—
2022/23Uefa Europa League1.FC Union Berlin8400001536
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin319810—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC5196001561
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC3184101436

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Deniz Yilmaz
Super Lig · 2017
29€1.3M€150kfell
Gustavo Sauer
Super Lig · 2024
31€1.4M€1.4Mflat
Mikael Dahlberg
Super League 1 · 2014
29€600k€200kfell
Derley
Liga Portugal · 2018
31€600k€400kfell
Ruslan Fomin
Premier Liga · 2015
29€700k€300kfell
Marco Matias
Liga Portugal · 2020
31€550k€125kfell
Guilherme Schettine
Premier Liga · 2024
29€700k€1.5Mrose
Kevin Lasagna
Super Lig · 2024
32€950k€950kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026TondelaStade ReimsFree / loan€1.5M
1 Sept 2025Stade ReimsTondelaFree / loan€3.0M
3 Feb 2025Union BerlinStade Reims€4.5M€3.0M
30 Jun 2024MönchengladbachUnion BerlinFree / loan€4.0M
31 Aug 2023Union BerlinMönchengladbachFree / loan€7.0M
1 Jul 2022Young BoysUnion Berlin€6.0M€7.0M
1 Jul 2021Stade RennaisYoung Boys€2.5M€5.0M
30 Jun 2021Young BoysStade RennaisFree / loan€5.0M
12 Sept 2020Stade RennaisYoung BoysFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2018Stade ReimsStade Rennais€9.0M€2.5M
30 Jun 2017LB ChâteaurouxStade ReimsFree / loan€850k
26 Jan 2017Stade ReimsLB ChâteaurouxFree / loan€1.3M
1 Jul 2015Stade Reims BStade ReimsUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Stade Reims U19Stade Reims BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Stade Reims U17Stade Reims U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Reims Yth.Stade Reims U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.