Alfonso Pedraza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alfonso Pedraza's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-6.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1690 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €859k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1690 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LB | 27 | 1690 | 49% | 1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 1478 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LB | 12 | 455 | 13% | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.22 | 1498 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LB | 19 | 1118 | 33% | 1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 1498 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LB | 26 | 1636 | 48% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1524 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LB | 28 | 1703 | 50% | 4 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.26 | 1519 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LB | 29 | 2103 | 61% | 1 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1541 | 1676 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 21 | 1350 | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1514 | 1481 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LM | 34 | 2089 | 61% | 3 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1566 | 1569 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LW | 33 | 2441 | 71% | 3 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 1552 | 1501 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LW | 2 | 106 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1452 | 1630 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 5 | 246 | 0 | 1 | 1541 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 4 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 141 | 1 | 1 | 1417 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 10 | 430 | 0 | 1 | 1688 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 178 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Villarreal CF | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 12 | 914 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 268 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 8 | 563 | 1 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 209 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 4 | 244 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ochs Bundesliga · 2014 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iñigo Lekue Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Cristian Zapata Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Marcel Schäfer Bundesliga · 2016 | 32 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Ermin Bicakcic Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Youssouf Sabaly Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jakub Blaszczykowski Bundesliga · 2017 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Óscar de Marcos Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Villarreal | Lazio | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 20 Jul 2020 | Real Betis | Villarreal | Free / loan | €9.5M |
| 16 Jul 2019 | Villarreal | Real Betis | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Alavés | Villarreal | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 5 Jul 2017 | Villarreal | Alavés | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Leeds | Villarreal | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Villarreal | Leeds | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jan 2017 | CD Lugo | Villarreal | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 28 Jul 2016 | Villarreal | CD Lugo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Villarreal CF B | Villarreal | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Villarreal U19 | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Séneca U19 | Villarreal Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.