Odysseus Velanas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Odysseus Velanas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (629 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 5.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €183k vs market €550k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 629 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1289
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €295k – €625k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; team strength down (-79 Elo); relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -41% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 629 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | AM | 13 | 629 | 21% | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 1289 | 1186 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | AM | 29 | 1356 | 44% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 1267 | 1265 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | AM | 31 | 2152 | 70% | 5 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 1358 | 1189 | 0.48 |
| 2020/21 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LW | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1319 | 1411 | 0.56 |
| 2017/18 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CM | 2 | 34 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1374 | 1422 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 50 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Quinn Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 29 | €375k | €225k | fell |
| Samúel Fridjónsson Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Mehdi Boudjemaa Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Ismael Diomande Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €550k | €150k | fell |
| Nico Fernández Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Janio Bikel Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Liam Grimshaw Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 27 | €325k | €325k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2023 | NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €600k |
| 22 Jul 2021 | Utrecht | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Utrecht U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Utrecht | Utrecht U21 | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Helmond Sport | Utrecht | Free / loan | €200k |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Utrecht | Helmond Sport | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Utrecht U21 | Utrecht | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Utrecht U19 | Utrecht U21 | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Utrecht U17 | Utrecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Jonathan Yth. | Utrecht Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.