Pedro Díaz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Díaz's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-6.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (1870 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1870 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; team strength up (+78 Elo); relative output down 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -62% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 34 | 1870 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1485 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 26 | 1205 | 35% | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 1553 | 1440 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1289 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 245 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karol Linetty Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Fabian Frei Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Dennis Aogo Bundesliga · 2015 | 28 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Aurélio Buta Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andy King Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Delvin N'Dinga Premier Liga · 2016 | 28 | €3.5M | €750k | fell |
| Dmitriy Tarasov Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Angelo Fulgini Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2024 | G. Bordeaux | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Sporting Gijón | G. Bordeaux | €2.2M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting B | Sporting Gijón | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.