Adama Traoré
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adama Traoré's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1074 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €452k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1074 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1273
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €386k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -67% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1074 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | RW | 16 | 1074 | 35% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 1273 | 1160 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muris Mesanovic Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Miguel Ángel Guerrero Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Ivan Cavaleiro Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €2.2M | €500k | fell |
| Zinedine Ferhat Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €2.3M | €2.3M | flat |
| Fernando Andrade Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €1.6M | €600k | fell |
| Stéphane Bahoken Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €950k | €950k | flat |
| Mustafa Pektemek Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €650k | €50k | fell |
| Lazar Markovic Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Al-Ula | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Genclerbirligi | Al-Ula | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 15 Aug 2025 | Ferencváros | Genclerbirligi | €600k | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Sheriff | Ferencváros | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 10 Feb 2021 | FC Metz | FC Sheriff | Unknown | €200k |
| 6 Oct 2020 | Al-Adalah | FC Metz | Free / loan | €200k |
| 18 Jan 2020 | FC Metz | Al-Adalah | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | US Orléans | FC Metz | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | FC Metz | US Orléans | Free / loan | €250k |
| 20 Aug 2018 | TP Mazembe | FC Metz | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | CO Bamako | TP Mazembe | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.