Rodrigo Pinho

35 yrs · Striker · Brazil
CF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€150k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€43k – €152k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€111k – €307k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€89k – €150k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€41k – €264k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€43k – €152k
Model value (performance-implied)€111k – €307k
Projected value (24 months)€89k – €150k
Dashed line: current market value (€150k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rodrigo Pinho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1185 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average14th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €57k vs market €150k
Expected appreciationNeutral+1% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1185 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.38
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.60
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1195
Opponent strength
1332
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€89k – €150k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -69% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1185 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (ATT)
Relative output kept
71%–130%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
66%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CF Estrela AmadoraLiga PortugalST29118539%410.380.60133211950.58
2024/25CF Estrela AmadoraLiga PortugalST33166855%500.270.52135311520.51
2023/24CF Estrela AmadoraLiga PortugalST831410%110.570.71133511850.58
2022/23SL BenficaLiga PortugalST2441%000.000.27135217180.68
2021/22SL BenficaLiga PortugalST3823%101.100.31132016560.67
2020/21CS MarítimoLiga PortugalST18123940%900.650.64130512590.61
2019/20CS MarítimoLiga PortugalST27160753%900.500.59135412980.59
2018/19CS MarítimoLiga PortugalST25143947%410.310.45137412990.65
2017/18CS MarítimoLiga PortugalST28196764%420.270.32132213590.64
2016/17SC BragaLiga PortugalST102177%100.410.41129313860.58
2015/16CD NacionalLiga PortugalST1136812%100.240.42133013060.58
2015/16SC BragaLiga PortugalST31665%000.000.35133114400.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica214001762
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingCS Marítimo3193101451

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bjorn Ruytinx
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
35€200k€200kflat
Silvestre Varela
Liga Portugal · 2020
35€200k€50kfell
Anatoliy Didenko
Premier Liga · 2017
35€100k€50kfell
Onur Ayik
Super Lig · 2023
33€200k€175kflat
Cassiano
Liga Portugal · 2023
34€200k€200kflat
Dennis Sörensen
Superliga · 2015
34€300k€100kfell
Edinho
Liga Portugal · 2018
36€200k€50kfell
Javier Cámpora
Super League 1 · 2015
35€250k€250kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jan 2024Coritiba FCEstrela AmadoraFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jan 2023BenficaCoritiba FC€500k€2.0M
1 Jul 2021MarítimoBenficaFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2017BragaMarítimoFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2016NacionalBragaFree / loan€300k
18 Jan 2016BragaNacionalFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2015MadureiraBraga€400k€100k
16 Jan 2015Bangu-RJMadureiraFree / loanData unavailable
31 Dec 2014MadureiraBangu-RJFree / loanData unavailable
12 May 2014Bangu-RJMadureiraFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Rodrigo Pinho · MoneyballAI