
Rodrigo Pinho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Pinho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1185 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 14th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €57k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1185 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.60
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1332
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €89k – €150k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -69% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1185 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 29 | 1185 | 39% | 4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 1332 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 33 | 1668 | 55% | 5 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 1353 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | ST | 8 | 314 | 10% | 1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 1335 | 1185 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 2 | 44 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1352 | 1718 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 3 | 82 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.31 | 1320 | 1656 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | ST | 18 | 1239 | 40% | 9 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 1305 | 1259 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | ST | 27 | 1607 | 53% | 9 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 1354 | 1298 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | ST | 25 | 1439 | 47% | 4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 1374 | 1299 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | ST | 28 | 1967 | 64% | 4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 1322 | 1359 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | ST | 10 | 217 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 1293 | 1386 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | ST | 11 | 368 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.42 | 1330 | 1306 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | ST | 3 | 166 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1331 | 1440 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1762 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | CS Marítimo | 3 | 193 | 1 | 0 | 1451 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bjorn Ruytinx Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 35 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Silvestre Varela Liga Portugal · 2020 | 35 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Anatoliy Didenko Premier Liga · 2017 | 35 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Onur Ayik Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €200k | €175k | flat |
| Cassiano Liga Portugal · 2023 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Dennis Sörensen Superliga · 2015 | 34 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Edinho Liga Portugal · 2018 | 36 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Javier Cámpora Super League 1 · 2015 | 35 | €250k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2024 | Coritiba FC | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Benfica | Coritiba FC | €500k | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Marítimo | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga | Marítimo | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Nacional | Braga | Free / loan | €300k |
| 18 Jan 2016 | Braga | Nacional | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Madureira | Braga | €400k | €100k |
| 16 Jan 2015 | Bangu-RJ | Madureira | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2014 | Madureira | Bangu-RJ | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 May 2014 | Bangu-RJ | Madureira | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.