Thierry Correia

27 yrs · Right-back · Portugal
Valencia CF · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 176 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€776k – €2.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.8M – €5.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €3.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€348k – €4.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€776k – €2.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.8M – €5.1M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €3.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Thierry Correia's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 92

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average61.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.0M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationLow-15% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €14.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1394 (41% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
61 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1497
Opponent strength
1480
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €3.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output up 40% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -36% to +1%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1394 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Valencia CFLaligaRB24139441%020.130.15148014960.95
2024/25Valencia CFLaligaRB1177123%000.000.10152914630.95
2023/24Valencia CFLaligaRB31216063%020.080.12147614591.00
2022/23Valencia CFLaligaRB27201659%000.000.05152014440.98
2021/22Valencia CFLaligaRB19142342%010.060.10150914871.05
2020/21Valencia CFLaligaRB29214163%110.080.11155415011.10
2019/20Sporting CPLiga PortugalRB436012%000.000.06138614920.59
2019/20Valencia CFLaligaRB42598%000.000.08146315481.16

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyValencia CF15600—
2023/24Copa Del ReyValencia CF422200—
2022/23SupercopaValencia CF1120001823
2021/22Copa Del ReyValencia CF319900—
2020/21Copa Del ReyValencia CF329510—
2019/20Copa Del ReyValencia CF221000—
2019/20Supercup Candido De OliveiraSporting CP190001683
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueValencia CF120001769

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sergey Kislyak
Premier Liga · 2014
27€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Alexander Hack
Bundesliga · 2021
28€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Kaan Ayhan
Serie A · 2022
28€5.0M€4.7Mflat
Cristian Zapata
Serie A · 2016
30€2.8M€2.5Mflat
Andreu Fontàs
Laliga · 2017
28€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Danny Fox
Premier League · 2013
27€2.5M€2.0Mfell
Paweł Olkowski
Bundesliga · 2017
27€2.3M€1.3Mfell
Nahuel Tenaglia
Laliga · 2024
28€2.0M€3.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Sept 2019SportingValencia€12.0M€400k
1 Jul 2019Sporting CP U23SportingUnknown€400k
1 Jul 2018Sporting U19Sporting CP U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Sporting Sub-15Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Sporting Yth.Sporting Sub-15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Thierry Correia · MoneyballAI