
Thierry Correia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thierry Correia's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1394 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output up 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -36% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1394 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 24 | 1394 | 41% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1480 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 11 | 771 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1529 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 31 | 2160 | 63% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1476 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 27 | 2016 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1520 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 19 | 1423 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1509 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 29 | 2141 | 63% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1554 | 1501 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RB | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1386 | 1492 | 0.59 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 4 | 259 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1463 | 1548 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 222 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 199 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 295 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1769 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Kislyak Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alexander Hack Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Kaan Ayhan Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €4.7M | flat |
| Cristian Zapata Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Andreu Fontàs Laliga · 2017 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danny Fox Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Paweł Olkowski Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €2.3M | €1.3M | fell |
| Nahuel Tenaglia Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 2019 | Sporting | Valencia | €12.0M | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.