Nahuel Tenaglia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nahuel Tenaglia's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-5.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3240 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> CB; relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -68% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1497 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RB | 34 | 2923 | 85% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1500 | 1418 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RB | 25 | 1131 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 1524 | 1431 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RB | 14 | 1072 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1538 | 1358 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 4 | 346 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniele Gastaldello Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €3.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| David Abraham Bundesliga · 2017 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sascha Riether Premier League · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Daniel Congré Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pablo Martínez Ligue 1 · 2020 | 31 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Daniel Brosinski Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Florian Klein Bundesliga · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Iván Balliu Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2023 | CA Talleres | Alavés | €1.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Alavés | CA Talleres | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 12 Jan 2022 | CA Talleres | Alavés | Free / loan | €5.2M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Atlanta | CA Talleres | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Atlanta U20 | Atlanta | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | CABJ U20 | Atlanta U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.