Jesper Karlsson

The model rates Jesper Karlsson's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.16x the positional average in the league (1823 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1823 (60% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.49

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.42

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

40 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.31 (rank 26)

Team strength (Elo)

1187

Opponent strength

1181

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€993k – €3.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; changed club; team strength down (-242 Elo); league level down (-269 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -68% to -14%).

• ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

12 (ATT)

Relative output kept

75%–114%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

67%

Confidence

Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.