Moisés
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moisés's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1719 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €881k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; role change CB -> LB; relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -64% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1719 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LB | 21 | 1719 | 64% | 2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 1341 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2194 | 81% | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1310 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 24 | 2087 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1343 | 1403 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LM | 24 | 2035 | 75% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1321 | 1447 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 9 | 637 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 9 | 691 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 12 | 964 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sverrir Ingi Ingason Superliga · 2024 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Baiano Liga Portugal · 2016 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Vedran Corluka Premier Liga · 2017 | 31 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Nana Asare Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 31 | €2.2M | €800k | fell |
| Aleksandr Martynovich Premier Liga · 2020 | 33 | €2.8M | €500k | fell |
| Willyan Rocha Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Michael Ngadeu Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 31 | €3.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Romain Saïss Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Internacional | CSKA Moscow | €2.3M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | CSKA Moscow | Internacional | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Internacional | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 24 Jan 2022 | EC Bahia | Internacional | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 31 Dec 2021 | Internacional | EC Bahia | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 15 Jan 2020 | EC Bahia | Internacional | Free / loan | €950k |
| 18 Jan 2019 | Corinthians | EC Bahia | €410k | €500k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Botafogo | Corinthians | Free / loan | €500k |
| 17 Feb 2018 | Corinthians | Botafogo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Nov 2016 | EC Bahia | Corinthians | Free / loan | €600k |
| 16 Feb 2016 | Corinthians | EC Bahia | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Nov 2015 | Bragantino | Corinthians | Free / loan | €150k |
| 14 May 2015 | Corinthians | Bragantino | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 May 2015 | Madureira | Corinthians | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2014 | Batatais-SP | Madureira | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jan 2014 | Comercial-SP | Batatais-SP | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.