
Dominik Kotarski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dominik Kotarski's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-4.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-7.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1359
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €7.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; changed club; league level up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -52% to -42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 67 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–125%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1250 | 1359 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | GK | 22 | 1980 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1271 | 1378 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | GK | 24 | 2160 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1248 | 1535 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | GK | 24 | 2160 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1236 | 1452 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1360 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1271 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1345 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Nordfeldt Eredivisie · 2015 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Uğurcan Çakır Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Sergio Padt Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Arnaud Bodart Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Nick Olij Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ilya Lantratov Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Piet Velthuizen Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Eloy Room Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | PAOK | Copenhagen | €5.0M | €9.0M |
| 2 Jul 2022 | HNK Gorica | PAOK | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax | HNK Gorica | €1.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | HNK Gorica | Ajax | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Jul 2021 | Ajax | HNK Gorica | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €250k |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Ajax U21 | €2.0M | Data unavailable |
| 24 Feb 2016 | Din. Zagreb U17 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | D. Zagreb Yth. | Din. Zagreb U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | NK Tondach | D. Zagreb Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.