Dominik Kotarski

26 yrs · Goalkeeper · Croatia
FC Copenhagen · Superliga · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.1M – €6.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€470k – €4.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.6M – €7.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.9M – €2.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €6.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€470k – €4.1M
Projected value (24 months)€1.6M – €7.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dominik Kotarski's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-4.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-7.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 74

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage47.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.3M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €9.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1980 (100% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
48 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1359
Opponent strength
1250
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.6M – €7.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; changed club; league level up (+62 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -52% to -42%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
67 (all positions)
Relative output kept
71%–125%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
67%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC CopenhagenSuperligaGK221980100%000.000.00125013590.47
2024/25Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1GK22198085%000.000.00127113780.35
2023/24Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1GK24216092%000.000.00124815350.42
2022/23Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1GK24216092%000.000.00123614520.37

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueFC Copenhagen8720001624
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Copenhagen6540001393
2025/26Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen545000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeaguePanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton10900001538
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton4390001360
2024/25Kypello ElladasPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton221000—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton2180001271
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton6540001345
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton221000—
2022/23Kypello ElladasPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton545000—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton2180001301

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Eredivisie · 2015
26€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Uğurcan Çakır
Super Lig · 2024
28€8.0M€15.0Mrose
Sergio Padt
Eredivisie · 2017
27€3.5M€2.0Mfell
Arnaud Bodart
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
25€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Nick Olij
Eredivisie · 2024
29€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Ilya Lantratov
Premier Liga · 2024
29€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Piet Velthuizen
Eredivisie · 2013
27€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Eloy Room
Eredivisie · 2017
28€4.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jul 2025PAOKCopenhagen€5.0M€9.0M
2 Jul 2022HNK GoricaPAOK€2.0M€1.5M
1 Jul 2022AjaxHNK Gorica€1.0M€1.5M
30 Jun 2022HNK GoricaAjaxFree / loan€1.5M
2 Jul 2021AjaxHNK GoricaFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2019Ajax U21AjaxUnknown€250k
31 Jan 2018Din. Zagreb U19Ajax U21€2.0MData unavailable
24 Feb 2016Din. Zagreb U17Din. Zagreb U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015D. Zagreb Yth.Din. Zagreb U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011NK TondachD. Zagreb Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.