Tetê

26 yrs · Right winger · Brazil
Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos · Super League 1 · Foot: left · Height: 175 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2029
Market value
€9.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.1M – €10.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.2M – €7.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.3M – €9.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8.4M – €3.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.1M – €10.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.2M – €7.6M
Projected value (24 months)€3.3M – €9.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€9.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tetê's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-7.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-10.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-9.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1128 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 8

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average60.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €8.0M vs market €9.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-43% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €28.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1128 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.40
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.31
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
60 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1465
Opponent strength
1243
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.3M – €9.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -72% to -33%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1128 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
19 (ATT)
Relative output kept
99%–112%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
47%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RW13112848%230.400.31124314650.43
2024/25Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RW25188781%530.380.33125914020.35
2023/24GalatasaraySuper LigRW33108432%040.330.22127615970.45
2022/23Olympique LyonLigue 1RW17111633%630.730.40141115490.82
2022/23Leicester CityPremier LeagueRW1373822%100.120.33156214981.23
2021/22FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaRW1796860%910.930.42126715680.45
2021/22Olympique LyonLigue 1RW958517%251.080.43136415870.86
2020/21FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaRW24150864%630.540.26128015510.49
2019/20FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaRW18126764%440.570.29130416190.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos6473021391
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos4323011354
2025/26Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos29401—
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos229001465
2024/25Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos315800—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2157101533
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos3108101457
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray5230111651
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingGalatasaray288001497
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray221001502
2022/23Fa CupLeicester City17400—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6373001689
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk4309111466
2021/22Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk17800—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueOlympique Lyon271001627
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6515111705
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4209101570
2020/21Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk15600—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk3155101769
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4123011604
2018/19Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk213321—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Andrija Zivkovic
Super League 1 · 2024
28€8.0M€8.0Mflat
Daniel Mancini
Super League 1 · 2024
28€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Alfredo Morelos
Scottish Premiership · 2023
27€6.0M€1.8Mfell
Cyle Larin
Super Lig · 2022
27€10.0M€4.0Mfell
Brown Ideye
Super League 1 · 2017
29€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Didier Lamkel Zé
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
25€4.5M€1.0Mfell
Aleksandar Prijovic
Super League 1 · 2019
29€6.0M€1.0Mfell
Sam Larsson
Eredivisie · 2018
25€6.0M€4.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
11 Jan 2026PanathinaikosGrêmio€6.2M€11.0M
25 Jul 2024GalatasarayPanathinaikos€5.8M€10.0M
10 Aug 2023Shakhtar D.Galatasaray€1.0M€25.0M
30 Jun 2023LyonShakhtar D.Free / loan€25.0M
29 Jun 2023LeicesterLyonFree / loan€25.0M
29 Jan 2023LyonLeicesterFree / loan€25.0M
31 Mar 2022Shakhtar D.LyonFree / loan€20.0M
28 Feb 2019GrêmioShakhtar D.€15.0MData unavailable
1 Jan 2018Grêmio U20GrêmioUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.