
Maracás
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maracás's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €437k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2594 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €268k – €491k
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -60% to -53%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2594 | 85% | 4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1325 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2390 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1361 | 1271 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2563 | 84% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1404 | 1329 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 17 | 1421 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1387 | 1231 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 24 | 2068 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1357 | 1321 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 1993 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1344 | 1328 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2123 | 69% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1387 | 1283 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Paços de Ferreira | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ari Freyr Skúlason Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 31 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Vitaliy Lysytskyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Mijat Maric Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 33 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Jorge Teixeira Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 32 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Andrey Malykh Premier Liga · 2020 | 32 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Yohan Tavares Liga Portugal · 2020 | 32 | €475k | €200k | fell |
| Aaron Meijers Eredivisie · 2020 | 33 | €550k | €250k | fell |
| Nuno Pinto Liga Portugal · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Al-Wahda | Moreirense | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Paços Ferreira | Al-Wahda | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Al-Wahda | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €750k |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Paços Ferreira | Al-Wahda | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sampaio-MA | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €75k |
| 14 Jun 2019 | Oeste | Sampaio-MA | Free / loan | €75k |
| 10 Jan 2019 | Sampaio-MA | Oeste | Free / loan | €75k |
| 22 May 2017 | Without Club | Sampaio-MA | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | EC Vitória | Without Club | Unknown | €75k |
| 30 Nov 2016 | América-RN | EC Vitória | Free / loan | €75k |
| 18 Mar 2016 | EC Vitória | América-RN | Free / loan | €75k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.