Maracás

32 yrs · Centre-back · Brazil
Moreirense FC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2026
Market value
€700k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€179k – €744k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€326k – €1.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€268k – €491k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€419k – €991k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€179k – €744k
Model value (performance-implied)€326k – €1.2M
Projected value (24 months)€268k – €491k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Maracás's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 25

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage46.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €437k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-49% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2594 (85% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
46 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1279
Opponent strength
1325
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€268k – €491k

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 60% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -60% to -53%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Moreirense FCLiga PortugalCB29259485%400.140.14132512790.58
2024/25Moreirense FCLiga PortugalCB29239078%110.080.08136112710.51
2023/24Moreirense FCLiga PortugalCB29256384%310.140.14140413290.58
2022/23FC Paços de FerreiraLiga PortugalCB17142146%000.000.04138712310.68
2021/22FC Paços de FerreiraLiga PortugalCB24206868%000.000.03135713210.67
2020/21FC Paços de FerreiraLiga PortugalCB23199365%000.000.02134413280.61
2019/20FC Paços de FerreiraLiga PortugalCB26212369%200.080.09138712830.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Paços de Ferreira2180001532

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ari Freyr Skúlason
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
31€900k€400kfell
Vitaliy Lysytskyi
Premier Liga · 2014
32€600k€200kfell
Mijat Maric
Jupiler Pro League · 2017
33€500k€400kfell
Jorge Teixeira
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
32€700k€300kfell
Andrey Malykh
Premier Liga · 2020
32€800k€400kfell
Yohan Tavares
Liga Portugal · 2020
32€475k€200kfell
Aaron Meijers
Eredivisie · 2020
33€550k€250kfell
Nuno Pinto
Liga Portugal · 2017
31€1.0M€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023Al-WahdaMoreirenseFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2023Paços FerreiraAl-WahdaFree / loan€500k
1 Jan 2023Al-WahdaPaços FerreiraFree / loan€750k
6 Jul 2022Paços FerreiraAl-WahdaFree / loan€900k
1 Jul 2019Sampaio-MAPaços FerreiraFree / loan€75k
14 Jun 2019OesteSampaio-MAFree / loan€75k
10 Jan 2019Sampaio-MAOesteFree / loan€75k
22 May 2017Without ClubSampaio-MAUnknown€75k
1 Jan 2017EC VitóriaWithout ClubUnknown€75k
30 Nov 2016América-RNEC VitóriaFree / loan€75k
18 Mar 2016EC VitóriaAmérica-RNFree / loan€75k

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.