Junior Firpo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Junior Firpo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-10.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 75.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 832 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -49% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 832 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 12 | 832 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1509 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | LB | 19 | 1367 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 1587 | 1418 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Leeds United | Premier League | LB | 24 | 1716 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 1624 | 1477 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 7 | 285 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 1472 | 1743 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 17 | 1010 | 30% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 1504 | 1813 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LM | 24 | 1937 | 57% | 3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 1555 | 1510 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LM | 14 | 1190 | 35% | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.38 | 1530 | 1522 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 4 | 360 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 320 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 254 | 0 | 0 | 1566 |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 4 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 1635 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 297 | 0 | 1 | 1548 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Jantschke Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Henrique Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Goran Popov Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Davide Santon Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Sabri Sarioglu Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| Cristian Zapata Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Bastos Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €3.2M | €1.7M | fell |
| Aleksandar Dragovic Bundesliga · 2021 | 30 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | Leeds | Real Betis | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 6 Jul 2021 | Barcelona | Leeds | €15.0M | €8.0M |
| 4 Aug 2019 | Real Betis | Barcelona | €20.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Betis Deportivo | Real Betis | Unknown | €100k |
| 7 Jul 2015 | Betis U19 | Betis B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Malagueño U19 | Betis U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | T. Pichón U19 | Malagueño U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Atl. Benamiel | T. Pichón U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.