Moatasem Al-Musrati
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moatasem Al-Musrati's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.50x the positional average in the league (841 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 38.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -65% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 841 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; team strength down (-127 Elo); league level up (+173 Elo); relative output up 101% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -69% to -47%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 841 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | DM | 18 | 841 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 1497 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 16 | 1177 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1274 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 10 | 381 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 1404 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 11 | 804 | 26% | 3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.15 | 1288 | 1499 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | DM | 9 | 547 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1289 | 1336 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 28 | 2318 | 76% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1398 | 1557 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 30 | 2570 | 84% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1367 | 1514 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 28 | 1956 | 64% | 3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 1354 | 1493 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | DM | 12 | 862 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1417 | 1412 | 0.59 |
| 2019/20 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | DM | 5 | 303 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1424 | 1418 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 347 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 1 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SC Braga | 5 | 308 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SC Braga | 3 | 171 | 1 | 1 | 1345 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 5 | 420 | 0 | 0 | 1541 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 11 | 976 | 1 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SC Braga | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 7 | 338 | 1 | 0 | 1569 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 6 | 507 | 0 | 0 | 1333 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Vitória Guimarães SC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1582 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Deaux Ligue 1 · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2019 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gonzalo Melero Laliga · 2024 | 30 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Marco D'Alessandro Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €1.6M | €1.1M | fell |
| Simone Verdi Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gaetano D'Agostino Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €1.5M | €100k | fell |
| Niko Kranjcar Premier League · 2015 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Davide Di Gennaro Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €2.8M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Hellas Verona | Besiktas | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Besiktas | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Monaco | Besiktas | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Besiktas | Monaco | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Braga | Besiktas | €11.0M | €14.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Besiktas | Braga | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 9 Feb 2024 | Braga | Besiktas | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Vit. Guimarães | Braga | Free / loan | €650k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Rio Ave | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €650k |
| 29 Jan 2020 | Vit. Guimarães | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Guimarães B | Vit. Guimarães | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Al-Ittihad | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Unknown | Al-Ittihad | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.