Marius Marin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marius Marin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1287 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1287 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1563
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €962k – €2.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -32% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1287 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | DM | 23 | 1287 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1563 | 1260 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Óscar Melendo Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Jaromir Zmrhal Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €2.4M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sergey Krivets Ligue 1 · 2015 | 29 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Iddrisu Baba Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
| Bryan Dabo Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Dániel Tőzsér Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Tristan Dingomé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.6M | rose |
| Jim Allevinah Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Pisa | Without Club | Unknown | €2.8M |
| 31 Jul 2019 | Sassuolo | AC Pisa | €400k | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | AC Pisa | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 17 Aug 2018 | Sassuolo | AC Pisa | Free / loan | €175k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Catanzaro | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €175k |
| 28 Jul 2017 | Sassuolo U20 | Catanzaro | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Aug 2016 | ASU Poli | Sassuolo U20 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2015 | Poli Tim. U19 | ASU Poli | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Timisoara U19 | Poli Tim. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.