
Noah Fadiga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Fadiga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1403 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1280
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €735k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength down (-167 Elo); league level down (-94 Elo); role change RM -> LB; relative output down 59% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -34% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1403 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | LB | 19 | 1403 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1280 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 15 | 847 | 31% | 4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.27 | 1357 | 1422 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 15 | 409 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 1355 | 1436 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | RB | 21 | 1313 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1438 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | RB | 33 | 2706 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1350 | 1250 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | RB | 15 | 1089 | 36% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1315 | 1303 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 6 | 402 | 0 | 0 | 1309 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 3 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murat Paluli Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Slavko Bralic Super League 1 · 2020 | 28 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Hidde ter Avest Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Daniel Anyembe Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €900k | €2.0M | rose |
| Konstantinos Giannoulis Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €800k | €750k | flat |
| Pierre-Yves Polomat Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €900k | €200k | fell |
| Aleksandr Filin Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Majid Hosseini Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | KAA Gent | Aris Saloniki | €1.5M | €3.0M |
| 8 Aug 2023 | Stade Brestois | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Heracles Almelo | Stade Brestois | €350k | €550k |
| 20 Jul 2020 | Club NXT | Heracles Almelo | Unknown | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Volendam | FC Brügge U21 | Free / loan | €275k |
| 31 Jul 2019 | FC Brügge U21 | FC Volendam | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Club Brugge Yth | FC Brügge U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Anderlecht Yth. | Club Brugge Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | KAA Gent Youth | Anderlecht Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.