Noah Fadiga

26 yrs · Right-back (also LB, RM) · Senegal
Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€646k – €2.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€551k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€735k – €2.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €787k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€646k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€551k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€735k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Noah Fadiga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average28.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-42% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1403 (60% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
29 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1255
Opponent strength
1280
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€735k – €2.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength down (-167 Elo); league level down (-94 Elo); role change RM -> LB; relative output down 59% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -34% to -5%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1403 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1LB19140360%000.000.07128012550.43
2024/25KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueRM1584731%400.430.27135714220.63
2023/24KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueRB1540915%010.220.11135514360.63
2022/23Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1RB21131338%100.070.13143813990.82
2021/22Heracles AlmeloEredivisieRB33270688%100.030.07135012500.60
2020/21Heracles AlmeloEredivisieRB15108936%020.170.14131513030.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis648000—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis2128001359
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingKAA Gent6402001309
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingKAA Gent383001436
2021/22Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo16500—
2020/21Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo18100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Murat Paluli
Super Lig · 2021
27€1.2M€800kfell
Slavko Bralic
Super League 1 · 2020
28€800k€500kfell
Hidde ter Avest
Eredivisie · 2024
27€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Daniel Anyembe
Superliga · 2024
26€900k€2.0Mrose
Konstantinos Giannoulis
Super League 1 · 2016
29€800k€750kflat
Pierre-Yves Polomat
Super Lig · 2020
27€900k€200kfell
Aleksandr Filin
Premier Liga · 2021
25€1.2M€800kfell
Majid Hosseini
Super Lig · 2022
26€3.0M€2.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025KAA GentAris Saloniki€1.5M€3.0M
8 Aug 2023Stade BrestoisKAA GentFree / loan€1.2M
1 Jul 2022Heracles AlmeloStade Brestois€350k€550k
20 Jul 2020Club NXTHeracles AlmeloUnknown€275k
30 Jun 2020FC VolendamFC Brügge U21Free / loan€275k
31 Jul 2019FC Brügge U21FC VolendamFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2016Club Brugge YthFC Brügge U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Anderlecht Yth.Club Brugge YthUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010KAA Gent YouthAnderlecht Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.