Santi Comesaña
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santi Comesaña's performance-implied value at EUR 9.7M-22.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-6.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (2413 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.7M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2413 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €6.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -63% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2413 | 71% | 3 | 6 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 1477 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2565 | 75% | 4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 1535 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1655 | 48% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1495 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2471 | 72% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1499 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 35 | 2696 | 79% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 1548 | 1389 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 25 | 2032 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 1573 | 1396 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 8 | 604 | 1 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 320 | 1 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 271 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 134 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 409 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Valbuena Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €11.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Márcio Mossoró Liga Portugal · 2013 | 30 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nabil Bentaleb Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Christian Noboa Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Tino Costa Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €7.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Luca Antonelli Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €7.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Senad Lulic Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €9.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 16 Jul 2016 | Coruxo FC | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Val Miñor U19 | Coruxo FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.