Konstantin Kuchaev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Konstantin Kuchaev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.43x the positional average in the league (1674 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1674 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1332
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €734k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -53% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1674 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1674 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 1332 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 21 | 1191 | 44% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 1317 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | AM | 9 | 596 | 22% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.37 | 1305 | 1164 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 12 | 371 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1316 | 1403 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 14 | 786 | 29% | 2 | 5 | 0.80 | 0.38 | 1334 | 1447 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | AM | 9 | 768 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 1331 | 1227 | 0.52 |
| 2021/22 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 13 | 303 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1286 | 1363 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 21 | 1426 | 53% | 6 | 4 | 0.63 | 0.44 | 1349 | 1383 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LM | 25 | 1416 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1386 | 1447 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 3 | 82 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1336 | 1547 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 21 | 869 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 1422 | 1596 | 0.75 |
| 2016/17 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 2 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1314 | 1566 | 0.70 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 11 | 814 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 9 | 560 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 4 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 359 | 0 | 0 | 1456 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 176 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1524 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 540 | 0 | 2 | 1588 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 222 | 1 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Egorychev Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €725k | €900k | rose |
| Vurnon Anita Eredivisie · 2019 | 30 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Pavel Komolov Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €800k | €750k | flat |
| Jere Uronen Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Recep Niyaz Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Anton Shvets Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Yevgen Makarenko Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Charilaos Charisis Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Pari NN | Rostov | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 22 Feb 2024 | CSKA Moscow | Pari NN | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Rubin Kazan | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 26 Jan 2022 | CSKA Moscow | Rubin Kazan | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | CSKA Moscow II | CSKA Moscow | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | UOR-5 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.