
Maksim Nenakhov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Nenakhov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1229 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1418
- Opponent strength
- 1338
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €840k – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; relative output up 150% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -41% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1229 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RB | 21 | 1229 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1338 | 1418 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RB | 28 | 1964 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1299 | 1413 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RB | 26 | 1987 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1336 | 1416 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RB | 20 | 1406 | 52% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1300 | 1399 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RB | 13 | 634 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1329 | 1344 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | RB | 27 | 2286 | 85% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1343 | 1307 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | RB | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1410 | 1312 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 7 | 542 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 10 | 697 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 5 | 443 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 6 | 329 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 3 | 163 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 4 | 242 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | Rotor Volgograd | 1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Bengtsson Eredivisie · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Lisandro Magallán Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Dmitriy Zhivoglyadov Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Georgios Koutroubis Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Oleg Reabciuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Srdjan Babic Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Tiago Pinto Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Stefan Ristovski Liga Portugal · 2020 | 28 | €3.2M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Akhmat Grozny | Loko Moscow | €2.0M | €1.8M |
| 15 Jan 2020 | Rotor Volgograd | Akhmat Grozny | €220k | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Dynamo M II | Rotor Volgograd | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | SKA Khabarovsk | Dynamo M II | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dynamo M II | SKA Khabarovsk | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Tyumen | Dynamo M II | Free / loan | €250k |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Dynamo M II | Tyumen | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Dynamo 2 | Dynamo M II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Dynamo M II | Dynamo 2 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Dynamo U17 | Dynamo M II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.