Maksim Nenakhov

27 yrs · Right-back · Russia
Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва · Premier Liga · Foot: both · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€657k – €2.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €3.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€840k – €2.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.3M – €2.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€657k – €2.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €3.2M
Projected value (24 months)€840k – €2.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Maksim Nenakhov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 51

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage43.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.6M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-34% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1229 (46% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
44 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1418
Opponent strength
1338
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€840k – €2.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; relative output up 150% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -41% to -24%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1229 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaRB21122946%010.070.10133814180.56
2024/25Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaRB28196473%000.000.04129914130.55
2023/24Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaRB26198774%000.000.05133614160.49
2022/23Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaRB20140652%110.130.10130013990.53
2021/22Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaRB1363423%000.000.07132913440.52
2020/21RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaRB27228685%030.120.15134313070.55
2019/20RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaRB981030%000.000.08141013120.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва754200—
2024/25Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва1069710—
2023/24Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва544301—
2022/23Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва632901—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва3163001463
2021/22Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва19000—
2020/21Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny424200—
2019/20Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny112000—
2019/20Russian CupRotor Volgograd13800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rasmus Bengtsson
Eredivisie · 2015
29€2.0M€1.3Mfell
Lisandro Magallán
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
29€2.5M€1.8Mfell
Dmitriy Zhivoglyadov
Premier Liga · 2020
26€2.2M€2.0Mflat
Georgios Koutroubis
Super League 1 · 2018
27€1.3M€400kfell
Oleg Reabciuk
Premier Liga · 2024
26€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Srdjan Babic
Premier Liga · 2024
28€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Tiago Pinto
Super Lig · 2016
28€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Stefan Ristovski
Liga Portugal · 2020
28€3.2M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021Akhmat GroznyLoko Moscow€2.0M€1.8M
15 Jan 2020Rotor VolgogradAkhmat Grozny€220k€650k
1 Jul 2019Dynamo M IIRotor VolgogradUnknown€400k
30 Jun 2019SKA KhabarovskDynamo M IIFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2018Dynamo M IISKA KhabarovskFree / loan€250k
30 Jun 2018TyumenDynamo M IIFree / loan€250k
19 Jan 2018Dynamo M IITyumenFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2017Dynamo 2Dynamo M IIUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2016Dynamo M IIDynamo 2Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2015Dynamo U17Dynamo M IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.